Craig_Allen's Blog

Another evening with plenty weather to talk about

The good news is the bitterly cold temperature extremes are over for awhile. The mercury made it above freezing on Sunday, helping to melt the night and morning snow, which averaged 1-3 inches around the area. I don't see this kind of extreme cold for at least a week. It's all relative but we're not exactly in line for balmy days either... just easier to handle than what we've had.

Next is the potential for more snow. A main low pressure area in the vicinity of the Great Lakes continues to sit and swirl around. Each time it spawns off some energy toward the coast, a new Low pressure center forms. There is one off the New England coast and another riding up the mid-Atlantic coast right now. It will bring more light snow and flurries to the region overnight but since it's moving offshore, eastern suburbs will get the most from this. If it were all snow, parts of Long Island and Connecticut would see several inches but since there is some mixing taking place, I'm thinking those areas will get a slushy 1-3 inches while areas from New York City north and west will get occasional coatings to an inch.

It would be simple if that was the end of the story but there are indications this could happen again tomorrow night. Another coastal low will be energized and move north/northeast. The same scenario may occur depending on its proximity to our area... some of us will get a bit light snow or flurries while eastern areas could pick up a few inches. We will have to keep a very close eye on it though. The trend has been to take it away but a shift back west of 25 to 50 miles will completely alter the forecast and bring a significant snow to some areas.

By Tuesday afternoon, the pattern will quiet down for awhile. The middle of the week will feature fair weather. Temperatures will continue below normal but as mentioned before, not nearly as bitter as what we just experienced. In fact, a warm up will begin on Thursday.

There is a potential for some precipitation next weekend once again.

First, the good news about this bitterly cold weather. The wind is now southerly and the mercury is beginning to rise and will continue to slowly go up through the night. So the core of the frigid weather is departing and I don't see this kind of extreme cold for at least a week. It's all relative but we're not exactly in line for balmy days, either... just easier to handle than what we've had.

Next is the potential for snow. There is a clipper system cutting across the Great Lakes and will move by to the north and west of us Saturday night and Sunday. A track like this almost always means milder air for regions south of the system (which is where we will be). It also limits the amount of precipitation that falls. Steadier and heavier snow is always associated with communities north of the track.

So with this in mind,  I would think much of our area will only get a coating to an inch or two. And all weather maps are indicating a shallow layer of above-freezing temperatures during Sunday afternoon. So that would mean the snow would be wet, perhaps even mix with rain along the coast. That could very well keep streets wet with slushy accumulations on the colder surfaces. For those of you in northwest New Jersey, the Hudson Valley north up toward I-84 as well as northeastward in Connecticut, there is a possibility of 2-4 inches of snow.

It would be simple if that was the end of the story but there are indications that a second storm will form off the Virginia coast. That will do two things. It will eventually switch the winds back around to northeasterly and colder air will start coming back down from New England. Secondly, it could bring precipitation back into the region Sunday night into early Monday, depending on how close this second storm stays near the coast. As of now  most weather maps keep it far enough offshore to only represent a real threat to eastern Long Island and Connecticut into New England.  We will have to keep a very close eye on it though. The trend has been to take it away but a shift back west of 25 to 50 miles will completely alter the forecast and bring a significant snow to some areas.

By Monday afternoon, the pattern will quiet down for awhile. The middle of the week will feature fair weather. Temperatures will continue below normal but as mentioned before, not nearly as bitter as what we just experienced.
There is a potential for some precipitation late in the week or early next weekend.

Saturday's storm is now well north and east of our region. In it's wake, a gusty, cold breeze and nighttime lows dropping into the 20s with teens in the suburbs. A trof of low pressure will move into the area so clouds will also come back tonight into early Monday with a chance of flurries but nothing major. Some sunshine will return Monday afternoon with temperatures continuing a little below normal at 30-35.

A cold front on Tuesday will bring showers of snow or rain with highs briefly getting back into the mid 30s to near 40. A storm will try to form along the coast at that time but the system should keep on moving out to sea, pushed by a steady arrival of colder and colder weather for the rest of the week. The most bitterly cold air of the season is poised to plunge into our area from Wednesday on. There could also be a period of snow on Thursday from another quick moving system. Daytime highs from mid week on will not get out of the teens and nights in the single digits and possibly below zero in the suburbs. Welcome to mid-January and the coldest weather of the winter season to date. The January thaw can't get here fast enough!

This winter storm is well underway but many of us in the Fox 5 viewing area can breathe a sigh of relief that it will not be a major storm. Despite what you may have heard from other sources, we here at New York Weather Authority do not believe this will be a huge snow maker  for New York City, Long Island, nearby NJ and down the New Jersey shore.

The latest track of the storm takes it from southern Ohio to the NJ shore then toward eastern Long Island. This means the heaviest snows will be farther up the Hudson Valley and into New England. We've been getting the word out to you first through the day on this site. This is also why I feel snowfall estimates issued by other sources, more than 48 hours prior to the storm even developing, is a bad practice. But we'll save that for another blog discussion... let's get to the matter at hand so you can be informed as to what we expect will happen from this point on.

Light snow started Saturday afternoon. Because it is so cold, it immediately began to stick, making some roads and walkways slippery. Snow has been light to occasionally moderate but as the storm gets closer warmer air is being drawn into the storm aloft. This is because the storm is acting more like the clipper type system it was originally intended to be. Clipper systems usually contain lighter precipitation and warmer air south of their track while colder snowier weather occurs along and north of the track.

We feel the new storm track is close enough to change snow to sleet and freezing rain, and maybe even plain rain along the immediate coastline, especially down the Jersey Shore. It may spread inland toward New York City and the boroughs and possibly even a few miles into New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut. If this scenario is correct, accumulations in New York City and coast will range from 1-3 inches. Then we'll have to deal with a few hours of icing before any possible complete change to rain. So we still urge you to be careful if you have outdoor plans Saturday evening.

For our viewers well back into northwest New Jersey, the Hudson Valley as you go west of I-287 and get closer to and beyond I-84,  as well up Routes 7 or 8 or I-91 in Ct, you will find more and more snow. Amounts will range from 3-6 inches and local spots of 6-8 inches the farther north you go.

As the storm leaves the area Sunday, it will become windy and colder again. Lingering flurries are likely but with some breaks of sun, too. Expect wind chills in the 20s at Giants Stadium for Big Blue's game against the Eagles.

Monday has a chance of flurries. A cold front on Tuesday will bring showers of snow or rain with highs in the 30s. It could also develop a new storm as it passes but like I said at the top, pinpointing something like that, more than two days away, is tough. Whatever happens on Tuesday, I can tell you that the most bitterly cold air of the season is poised to plunge into our area from Wednesday on. There could also be a period of snow on Thursday. Daytime highs from mid week on will not get out of the teens and nights in the single digits and possible below zero in the suburbs.

Welcome to mid-January and possibly the coldest weather of the entire winter season.  I'm already looking forward to a January thaw!

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As this winter storm approaches, many of us in the Fox 5 viewing area can breathe a sigh of relief. Despite what you may be hearing from other sources, we here at NY Weather Authority no longer believe this will be a major snow threat for the City, Long Island, nearby NJ and down the NJ shore.

The latest track of the storm continues to trend further north, pushing the heaviest snows farther up the Hudson Valley and into New England. This is obviously a major change and we want to get the word out to you first!  This is also why I feel snowfall estimates issued by other sources, more than 48 hours prior to the storm even developing, is a bad practice. But we'll save that for another blog discussion....let's get to the matter at hand so you can be informed as to what we expect will happen.  Flurries and patches of light snow will fall from time to time today.

Since it is so cold, dustings and small coatings can occur making some roads and walkways slippery. The steadier precipitation will arrive towards evening into tonight. Snow will begin to pick up in intensity but as it does so, warmer air will be drawn into the storm aloft. This is because the storm is acting more like the clipper type system it was originally intended to be. Clipper systems usually contain lighter precipitation and warmer air south of their track while colder snowier weather occurs along and north of the track.   We feel the new storm track is approximately from the lower Ohio Valley to the Susquehanna Valley in Pennsylvania to Montauk. 

That is close enough to change snow to sleet and freezing rain, then rain. The mix and change will occur first along the coast then spread inland towards the City and Boros and probably even several miles into NJ. the lower Hudson Valley and Ct. If this scenario is correct, there will only be a slushy coating to an inch or two of snow (if that) in the above mentioned areas. Then we'll have to deal with a few hours of icing before any possible complete change to rain. So we still urge you to be careful if you have outdoor plans this evening.  

For our viewers well back into northwest NJ, the Hudson Valley as you get closer to and beyond I-84 as well up Rts 7 or 8 or I-91 in Ct, you will find more and more snow.  Amounts will range from 3-6" and local spots of 6-8" the farther north you go.   As the storm leaves the area tomorrow, it will become windy and colder again. Lingering flurries are likely but with some breaks of sun too. Expect wind chills in the 20's and teens at Giants Stadium.  

Monday & Tuesday also have a chance of flurries. The system on Tuesday has a chance to develop stronger but as I mentioned at the top, there is no reason to talk about accumulations at this early point. Whatever happens on Tuesday, I can tell you that the most bitterly cold air of the season is poised to plunge into our area from Wednesday on. Daytime highs from mid week on will not get much above 20 with nights in the single digits and possible below zero in the suburbs.  

So once again, nasty weather is still expected later today into tonight but the heavier snowfall from this system will fall north of the City. Melissa and I will have more updates throughout the day and evening.

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Not a bad day to end the weekend and long holiday week but more clouds and potentially some light precipitation are on the way. It will likely fall as spotty freezing rain inland; rain for New York City and the coast.

A complex storm system is weakening upon approaching our region. Precip arriving Sunday night should be light and spotty into Monday morning . After lunch time, we will see breaks of sun and afternoon temperatures will be the mildest of the week with highs into the 40s.

Tuesday will start quiet but an even more potent storm will be approaching Tuesday night into Wednesday. Weather maps keep this one intact when it reaches us, forming a secondary storm along the coast. Enough mild air is expected to get drawn into the system so that any wintry or icy precipitation that develops Tuesday night should change to a cold rain on Wednesday. The precip may be heavy at times but will be tapering off during the afternoon.

Leftover flurries Wednesday night into Thursday will give way to clearing and cold temperatures for the rest of the week. Even colder weather is poised to make a return late next weekend or next week, possibly with some snow showers.

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A bright start to the weekend, though it was windy and chilly. The weekend will end with more clouds and potentially some light precipitation as sleet or freezing rain inland; rain for New York City and the coast.

Most of Sunday will be dry but the clouds will thicken. There's a very complex storm system developing out west and south but the bulk of it will not affect our region. Precip late Sunday or Sunday night should be light and spotty. However, there are some indications of a steadier period of rain from early Monday morning til about late morning or lunch time, then it will clear. Monday afternoon temperatures will be the mildest of the week with highs into the 40s.

Tuesday will start quiet but an even more potent storm will be approaching Tuesday night into Wednesday. Weather maps keep this one intact when it reaches us, forming a secondary storm along the coast. Now let's remember this was a similar scenario that didn't fully pan out this past Friday. So we have to wait and see if the computer maps show some consistency. But as of now, it appears a wintry mix will develop Tuesday night then change to a cold rain on Wednesday. The precip may be heavy at times.

Leftover flurries Wednesday night into Thursday will give way to clearing and seasonably cold temperatures for the rest of the week. Even colder weather is poised to make a return late next weekend or next week.
 

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The parade of weather systems will continue to march across from the Pacific to the U.S. and over to the eastern seaboard. Each one will have a little different identity and a bit of different track resulting in differing weather conditions through the next week.

Friday's system did not redevelop into a major east coast storm as had been though earlier in the week so fortunately, most of the region only got a little light snow. Saturday will be fair but cold with a gusty wind.

The next system brings clouds on Sunday and a chance of precipitation by late day or at night. It should turn mild enough so that it's mostly rain. Any ice at the start over inland suburbs should change over, too. Then clearing during Monday but windy again with early high temperatures in the 40s.

Clouds increase again on Tuesday with colder highs in the 30s and the next system will bring a wintry mix starting later in the day into Tuesday night. Eventually, enough mild air should come into this storm too so that a change to rain is expected on Wednesday.

Then quiet again for a day or two, next Thursday and Friday with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

Get ready for another spell of rapid weather changes. This time, unfortunately, no warm weather is involved. It's all about the wintry cold and snow.

The storm traveling east along interstate 80 Tuesday night will bring precipitation to our area by Wednesday morning and it will last into the afternoon. When this type of storm tracks west to east like this, there is usually a very sharp gradient to snow amounts. South of the system, not much will fall and it will probably be a mix of wet snow or rain. Along and to the north of the path, snowfall rates increase. So with the current track across I-80 in New Jersey to NYC and right across Long Island, the estimates go like this:

A coating to 2 inches or so along that path. Central and southern New Jersey may not get much at all. However, northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and Connecticut will likely get at least 2 and possibly up to 5 inches of snow. It's possible to see a few places get close to 6 inches up towards the interstate 84 corridor in the Hudson Valley and CT. Any deviation north or south of that path will alter the snow bands north or south respectively. And we just won't know until the low is approaching NJ.

Fortunately, the storm is a quick mover. It will intensify rapidly as it moves up towards the New England coast. At that point, it will pull down bitter arctic air on strong and gusty northerly winds. The combination of falling temperatures and winds gusting to 45 mph will drive the wind chill down into the single digits. Anyone outdoors during New Years celebrations must bundle up in layers to prevent the danger of frostbite.

New Year's Day will be sunny but quite cold. Highs only in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Then the next storm coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest will affect our region on Friday into Friday night/Saturday morning. There are dozens of question to be answered about this one. Will it strengthen? Will a secondary storm form along the coast? If so, will it intensify when it's too far offshore or close to the coast? And since it is still so far away, the best bet for now is to simply call for a wintry mix.

By Saturday afternoon, it will begin to clear and we should go into a period of quieter weather into early next week. Temperatures will be seasonably cold.

The cooling trend is underway and by midweek it will be quite cold again. Monday was about 20 degrees cooler than Sunday. Tuesday will be a few degrees lower and by Wednesday into Thursday, it will turn frigid.

Several cold fronts will pass the area over the next few days. Overnight will be partly cloudy and there could be a flurry or two north and west of New York City. A mix of sun and clouds will be back for Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon highs will be just a little above 40 and the wind will gust up to about 30 mph.

The next cold front will be a little more potent with a small low pressure attached to it so there is a better chance of snow or rain showers from Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Most of it will be gone before evening so travelers should not have to deal with precipitation. However, roads and walks may be icy from what does occur earlier in the day because temperatures will be plummeting.

Highs on Wednesday will start out near 40 but then drop thru the 30's into the 20's. At midnight in Times Square, expect the mercury to be running between 25 and 30 with wind chills in the teens so be sure to layer up if you're heading out.

The new year begins with sunny but frigid weather and highs just about getting to near freezing.

Then the next weather system is likely to be even more powerful. As it swings across from the west, a secondary storm will likely form along the coast. Depending on it's track and how much ocean air it brings in, our region is likely to be covered by snow, sleet or rain through the day into the night.

Clearing is expected for the weekend and it will be seasonably cold.

We enjoyed incredible weather Sunday afternoon. No, we didn't have a great amount of sun but the temperature still reached record highs in the low to middle 60s. Even across Long Island, where the southwest wind blew across the chilly ocean, temperatures managed to climb into the 50s which were records in some places, too. This is the way this December has gone. -- a few remarkably warm days followed by a roller coaster down to more wintry conditions.

It will be similar this week though not quite as dramatic. A cold front passing through Sunday night, will drop temperatures into the 40s for Monday but that is still above normal. Plenty of sun is expected for Monday and even Tuesday, though Tuesday will be a little cooler with highs of 40-45. We close the year on Wednesday with highs staying close to 40 and the possibility of a rain or snow shower. New Year's Eve in Times Square is expected to be dry but getting colder. Midnight temperatures will be down to 25-30.

The new year starts quite cold with highs barely getting to freezing then we turn our attention to a storm that could bring rain, snow or a mix to the tri-state region on Friday. Hopefully, it will be pulling out in time for some clearing during Saturday and lasting into Sunday. Next weekend's temperatures will be near to slightly below normal.

Have a safe, happy and wonderful New Year!

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Warm, moist southerly  winds across the cool ocean and the chilly ground which still has some snow on it in the northwest suburbs, is producing a very thick fog across the tri-state region. A dense fog advisory is in effect overnight into Sunday morning. During Sunday, a cold front will be approaching and turn the wind to a more southwest or westerly direction. The fog should thin out and allow for some sunshine. At that point, the mercury will soar through the 50s and into the 60s, possibly breaking records across the area during Sunday afternoon. The cold front itself will likely produce a few showers later in the afternoon into the evening.

Once the front passes, colder weather will return. It won't be a cold outbreak but daytime high for Monday and Tuesday will be back into the 40s with fair weather. 2008 will close on a chilly note with highs closer to 40 but it is expected to be dry New Years Eve with temperatures in the 30's. The new year of 2009 will get off to a cold start with highs in the 30s and increasing clouds. Our next weather maker could bring a round of rain or snow on Friday into early Saturday.

So once again, a roller coaster week of temperatures coming up but no weather problems foreseen for our part of the country as we celebrate the beginning of the new year.

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Winter weather is hitting the tri-state region once again. The scenario and results are a little different but the outcome will be similar to what we went through on Friday.

Temperatures barely rose through the 20s on Saturday under a gray sky with occasional flurries. The next storm is approaching from the Midwest. As it gets closer overnight, the snow will pick up in intensity and immediately accumulate. Now here's the difference; while the main storm travels up to the west of us, a secondary storm will form off the Virginia coast. While forming, enough ocean air should move into the region and change the snow to sleet and then rain. It will happen first along the New Jersey shore and south shore and east end of Long Island. Then it will eventually spread inland toward New York City and beyond. The question is, how much snow falls before that transition takes place. A heavy burst of snow usually occurs before the transition as well. So putting that all into consideration, I think Long Island, New York City, and the Jersey Shore will get a coating to as much as 2 inches. Farther inland toward I-287, and from the Merritt Parkway on north, 2-4 inches of snow will accumulate before any change. Areas closer to I 84 in the Hudson Valley and Connecticut could see 3-5 inches of snow and sleet and probably very little change to rain.

The good news is that this storm is moving fast. By late Sunday, the sky may even begin to brighten and hopefully roads will begin to dry out for families traveling to celebrate Hanukkah, before it gets too icy. The combined storms will pull down another arctic blast that will send the mercury down to bone-chilling levels along with a biting wind. In fact, it may get so cold that a wind-chill advisory may be needed, meaning it could feel like it's below 0 from Sunday night into Monday morning. A little good news....this looks to be the last of the arctic outbreaks for awhile.

Sunshine will be back  on Monday but I doubt the daytime highs will get out of the 20s. Fair weather is still likely for Tuesday and the temperature should moderate back into the 30s.

Yet another storm is likely in time for Christmas Eve day into Christmas. However, this one definitely looks like it will take a track up to the Great Lakes. If that path holds, southwest winds ahead of the system will rapidly bring temperatures into the 40s and if this pattern holds, it will be a wet Christmas rather than white. The remainder of the week will also be quite mild with highs in the 40s.

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This past week's weather was wild as expected. Don't let your guard down. After this quiet weekend, the roller coaster ride will start again with temperatures up and down and plenty of chances for rain through the week.

Southerly winds for Sunday and Monday will send temperatures to well above normal levels again. The mercury will level off and then actually rise overnight and could be up near 60 degrees again for Monday afternoon. Then a cold front will pass through by Monday night and the mercury will begin to tumble again. Periods of rain along and behind the cold front could briefly end as wet snow or flurries, especially north and west of New York City during Tuesday morning. The rest of Tuesday will just be mainly cloudy and getting chillier as temperatures drop through the 40s into the 30s.

Weather fronts and southern moisture may meet up several more times during the week. A few periods of rain expected for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Temperatures will be a little below normal making for a raw, cold rain. On Friday however, south or southeasterly winds will transport warmer and wet weather back up and highs will climb into the 50s but with more showers likely; some may be heavy.

We may get lucky and get a break to start next weekend. Saturday's high would be in the seasonal 40s but there is a chance of another storm affecting us on Sunday. That one could bring rain or mixed precipitation. But always keep in mind, that is a week away and weather patterns can change quite a few times. Be sure to watch Fox 5 and log in to this site frequently for updates on the upcoming changes.

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Temperatures will plummet into the Teens and 20's tonight. Combine that with the wind and wind chill readings will be in the single digits at times from tonight into Monday morning. You will really need to bundle up when going back to work and school Monday morning!  Exposed skin could develop frostbite in 30-45 minutes.

Monday itself will be sunny but I doubt the mercury will be able to get much above freezing. The wind will gradually diminish though by late day. Less wind but still very cold for Monday night with lows mostly in the 20's.

Next....a more important storm will affect our area from late Tuesday into Wednesday. Believe it or not, even with this arctic air over us now, the storm will take a track that will bring much milder southerly winds into our region so that temperatures will begin to rise rapidly during Tuesday. Any mixed precipitation at the start inlnad, should be brief. Then windy with occasional rain is likely Tuesday night and Wednesday but temperatures will climb into the 50's. But that's not all. Another bitter blast will follow that storm and the lingering rain may change to snow before ending.

Weather maps are still undecided about late in the week and next weekend as well. There are some indications there could be yet another storm with some precipitation.

Plenty of changes this week. Possibly a wild week of weather. Keep track right here at nyweatherauthority.com