Jan 18, 2009 | 7:09 PM
Category:
Weather
Another evening with plenty weather to talk about
The good news
is the bitterly cold temperature extremes are over for awhile. The
mercury made it above freezing on Sunday, helping to melt the night and
morning snow, which averaged 1-3 inches around the area. I don't see
this kind of extreme cold for at least a week. It's all relative but
we're not exactly in line for balmy days either... just easier to
handle than what we've had.
Next is the potential for more snow.
A main low pressure area in the vicinity of the Great Lakes continues
to sit and swirl around. Each time it spawns off some energy toward the
coast, a new Low pressure center forms. There is one off the New
England coast and another riding up the mid-Atlantic coast right now.
It will bring more light snow and flurries to the region overnight but
since it's moving offshore, eastern suburbs will get the most from
this. If it were all snow, parts of Long Island and Connecticut would
see several inches but since there is some mixing taking place, I'm
thinking those areas will get a slushy 1-3 inches while areas from New
York City north and west will get occasional coatings to an inch.
It
would be simple if that was the end of the story but there are
indications this could happen again tomorrow night. Another coastal low
will be energized and move north/northeast. The same scenario may occur
depending on its proximity to our area... some of us will get a bit
light snow or flurries while eastern areas could pick up a few inches.
We will have to keep a very close eye on it though. The trend has been
to take it away but a shift back west of 25 to 50 miles will completely
alter the forecast and bring a significant snow to some areas.
By
Tuesday afternoon, the pattern will quiet down for awhile. The middle
of the week will feature fair weather. Temperatures will continue below
normal but as mentioned before, not nearly as bitter as what we just
experienced. In fact, a warm up will begin on Thursday.
There is a potential for some precipitation next weekend once again.
Jan 17, 2009 | 7:17 PM
Category:
Weather
First, the good news about this bitterly cold weather. The wind is now
southerly and the mercury is beginning to rise and will continue to
slowly go up through the night. So the core of the frigid weather is
departing and I don't see this kind of extreme cold for at least a
week. It's all relative but we're not exactly in line for balmy days,
either... just easier to handle than what we've had.
Next is the
potential for snow. There is a clipper system cutting across the Great
Lakes and will move by to the north and west of us Saturday night and
Sunday. A track like this almost always means milder air for regions
south of the system (which is where we will be). It also limits the
amount of precipitation that falls. Steadier and heavier snow is always
associated with communities north of the track.
So with this
in mind, I would think much of our area will only get a coating to an
inch or two. And all weather maps are indicating a shallow layer of
above-freezing temperatures during Sunday afternoon. So that would mean
the snow would be wet, perhaps even mix with rain along the coast. That
could very well keep streets wet with slushy accumulations on the
colder surfaces. For those of you in northwest New Jersey, the Hudson
Valley north up toward I-84 as well as northeastward in Connecticut,
there is a possibility of 2-4 inches of snow.
It would be simple
if that was the end of the story but there are indications that a
second storm will form off the Virginia coast. That will do two things.
It will eventually switch the winds back around to northeasterly and
colder air will start coming back down from New England. Secondly, it
could bring precipitation back into the region Sunday night into early
Monday, depending on how close this second storm stays near the coast.
As of now most weather maps keep it far enough offshore to only
represent a real threat to eastern Long Island and Connecticut into New
England. We will have to keep a very close eye on it though. The trend
has been to take it away but a shift back west of 25 to 50 miles will
completely alter the forecast and bring a significant snow to some
areas.
By Monday afternoon, the pattern will quiet down for
awhile. The middle of the week will feature fair weather. Temperatures
will continue below normal but as mentioned before, not nearly as
bitter as what we just experienced.
There is a potential for some precipitation late in the week or early next weekend.
Jan 11, 2009 | 6:50 PM
Category:
Weather
Saturday's storm is now well north and east of our region. In it's
wake, a gusty, cold breeze and nighttime lows dropping into the 20s
with teens in the suburbs. A trof of low pressure will move into the
area so clouds will also come back tonight into early Monday with a
chance of flurries but nothing major. Some sunshine will return Monday
afternoon with temperatures continuing a little below normal at 30-35.
A
cold front on Tuesday will bring showers of snow or rain with highs
briefly getting back into the mid 30s to near 40. A storm will try to
form along the coast at that time but the system should keep on moving
out to sea, pushed by a steady arrival of colder and colder weather for
the rest of the week. The most bitterly cold air of the season is
poised to plunge into our area from Wednesday on. There could also be a
period of snow on Thursday from another quick moving system. Daytime
highs from mid week on will not get out of the teens and nights in the
single digits and possibly below zero in the suburbs. Welcome to
mid-January and the coldest weather of the winter season to date. The
January thaw can't get here fast enough!
Jan 10, 2009 | 7:10 PM
Category:
Weather
This winter storm is well underway but many of
us in the Fox 5 viewing area can breathe a sigh of relief that it will
not be a major storm. Despite what you may have heard from other
sources, we here at New York Weather Authority do not believe this will
be a huge snow maker for New York City, Long Island, nearby NJ and
down the New Jersey shore.
The latest track of the storm takes
it from southern Ohio to the NJ shore then toward eastern Long Island.
This means the heaviest snows will be farther up the Hudson Valley and
into New England. We've been getting the word out to you first through
the day on this site. This is also why I feel snowfall estimates issued
by other sources, more than 48 hours prior to the storm even
developing, is a bad practice. But we'll save that for another blog
discussion... let's get to the matter at hand so you can be informed as
to what we expect will happen from this point on.
Light snow
started Saturday afternoon. Because it is so cold, it immediately began
to stick, making some roads and walkways slippery. Snow has been light
to occasionally moderate but as the storm gets closer warmer air is
being drawn into the storm aloft. This is because the storm is acting
more like the clipper type system it was originally intended to be.
Clipper systems usually contain lighter precipitation and warmer air
south of their track while colder snowier weather occurs along and
north of the track.
We feel the new storm track is close
enough to change snow to sleet and freezing rain, and maybe even plain
rain along the immediate coastline, especially down the Jersey Shore.
It may spread inland toward New York City and the boroughs and possibly
even a few miles into New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley and
Connecticut. If this scenario is correct, accumulations in New York
City and coast will range from 1-3 inches. Then we'll have to deal with
a few hours of icing before any possible complete change to rain. So we
still urge you to be careful if you have outdoor plans Saturday
evening.
For our viewers well back into northwest New Jersey,
the Hudson Valley as you go west of I-287 and get closer to and beyond
I-84, as well up Routes 7 or 8 or I-91 in Ct, you will find more and
more snow. Amounts will range from 3-6 inches and local spots of 6-8
inches the farther north you go.
As the storm leaves the area
Sunday, it will become windy and colder again. Lingering flurries are
likely but with some breaks of sun, too. Expect wind chills in the 20s
at Giants Stadium for Big Blue's game against the Eagles.
Monday
has a chance of flurries. A cold front on Tuesday will bring showers of
snow or rain with highs in the 30s. It could also develop a new storm
as it passes but like I said at the top, pinpointing something like
that, more than two days away, is tough. Whatever happens on Tuesday, I
can tell you that the most bitterly cold air of the season is poised to
plunge into our area from Wednesday on. There could also be a period of
snow on Thursday. Daytime highs from mid week on will not get out of
the teens and nights in the single digits and possible below zero in
the suburbs.
Welcome to mid-January and possibly the coldest
weather of the entire winter season. I'm already looking forward to a
January thaw!
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Jan 10, 2009 | 4:42 PM
Category:
Weather
As this winter storm approaches,
many of us in the Fox 5 viewing area can breathe a sigh of relief.
Despite what you may be hearing from other sources, we here at NY
Weather Authority no longer believe this will be a major snow threat
for the City, Long Island, nearby NJ and down the NJ shore.
The latest
track of the storm continues to trend further north, pushing the
heaviest snows farther up the Hudson Valley and into New England. This
is obviously a major change and we want to get the word out to you
first! This is also why I feel snowfall estimates issued by other
sources, more than 48 hours prior to the storm even developing, is a
bad practice. But we'll save that for another blog discussion....let's
get to the matter at hand so you can be informed as to what we expect
will happen.
Flurries and patches of light snow
will fall from time to time today.
Since it is so cold, dustings and
small coatings can occur making some roads and walkways slippery. The
steadier precipitation will arrive towards evening into tonight. Snow
will begin to pick up in intensity but as it does so, warmer air will
be drawn into the storm aloft. This is because the storm is acting more
like the clipper type system it was originally intended to be. Clipper
systems usually contain lighter precipitation and warmer air south of
their track while colder snowier weather occurs along and north of the
track.
We feel the new storm track is
approximately from the lower Ohio Valley to the Susquehanna Valley in
Pennsylvania to Montauk.
That is close enough to change snow to sleet
and freezing rain, then rain. The mix and change will occur first along
the coast then spread inland towards the City and Boros and probably
even several miles into NJ. the lower Hudson Valley and Ct. If this
scenario is correct, there will only be a slushy coating to an inch or
two of snow (if that) in the above mentioned areas. Then we'll have to
deal with a few hours of icing before any possible complete change to
rain. So we still urge you to be careful if you have outdoor plans this
evening.
For our viewers well back into
northwest NJ, the Hudson Valley as you get closer to and beyond I-84 as
well up Rts 7 or 8 or I-91 in Ct, you will find more and more
snow. Amounts will range from 3-6" and local spots of 6-8" the farther
north you go.
As the storm leaves the area
tomorrow, it will become windy and colder again. Lingering flurries are
likely but with some breaks of sun too. Expect wind chills in the 20's
and teens at Giants Stadium.
Monday & Tuesday also have a
chance of flurries. The system on Tuesday has a chance to develop
stronger but as I mentioned at the top, there is no reason to talk
about accumulations at this early point. Whatever happens on Tuesday, I
can tell you that the most bitterly cold air of the season is poised to
plunge into our area from Wednesday on. Daytime highs from mid week on
will not get much above 20 with nights in the single digits and
possible below zero in the suburbs.
So once again, nasty weather is
still expected later today into tonight but the heavier snowfall from
this system will fall north of the City. Melissa and I will have more updates throughout the day and evening.
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Jan 4, 2009 | 8:11 PM
Category:
Weather
Not a bad day to end the weekend and long holiday week but more clouds
and potentially some light precipitation are on the way. It will likely
fall as spotty freezing rain inland; rain for New York City and the
coast.
A complex storm system is weakening upon approaching
our region. Precip arriving Sunday night should be light and spotty
into Monday morning . After lunch time, we will see breaks of sun and
afternoon temperatures will be the mildest of the week with highs into
the 40s.
Tuesday will start quiet but an even more potent storm
will be approaching Tuesday night into Wednesday. Weather maps keep
this one intact when it reaches us, forming a secondary storm along the
coast. Enough mild air is expected to get drawn into the system so that
any wintry or icy precipitation that develops Tuesday night should
change to a cold rain on Wednesday. The precip may be heavy at times
but will be tapering off during the afternoon.
Leftover
flurries Wednesday night into Thursday will give way to clearing and
cold temperatures for the rest of the week. Even colder weather is
poised to make a return late next weekend or next week, possibly with
some snow showers.
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Jan 3, 2009 | 5:58 PM
Category:
Weather
A bright start to the weekend, though it was windy and chilly. The
weekend will end with more clouds and potentially some light
precipitation as sleet or freezing rain inland; rain for New York City
and the coast.
Most of Sunday will be dry but the clouds will
thicken. There's a very complex storm system developing out west and
south but the bulk of it will not affect our region. Precip late Sunday
or Sunday night should be light and spotty. However, there are some
indications of a steadier period of rain from early Monday morning til
about late morning or lunch time, then it will clear. Monday afternoon
temperatures will be the mildest of the week with highs into the 40s.
Tuesday
will start quiet but an even more potent storm will be approaching
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Weather maps keep this one intact when it
reaches us, forming a secondary storm along the coast. Now let's
remember this was a similar scenario that didn't fully pan out this
past Friday. So we have to wait and see if the computer maps show some
consistency. But as of now, it appears a wintry mix will develop
Tuesday night then change to a cold rain on Wednesday. The precip may
be heavy at times.
Leftover flurries Wednesday night into
Thursday will give way to clearing and seasonably cold temperatures for
the rest of the week. Even colder weather is poised to make a return
late next weekend or next week.
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Jan 2, 2009 | 7:29 PM
Category:
Weather
The parade of weather systems will continue to march across from the
Pacific to the U.S. and over to the eastern seaboard. Each one will
have a little different identity and a bit of different track resulting
in differing weather conditions through the next week.
Friday's system did not redevelop into a major east coast storm as
had been though earlier in the week so fortunately, most of the region
only got a little light snow. Saturday will be fair but cold with a
gusty wind.
The next system brings clouds on Sunday and a chance of
precipitation by late day or at night. It should turn mild enough so
that it's mostly rain. Any ice at the start over inland suburbs should
change over, too. Then clearing during Monday but windy again with
early high temperatures in the 40s.
Clouds increase again on Tuesday with colder highs in the 30s and
the next system will bring a wintry mix starting later in the day into
Tuesday night. Eventually, enough mild air should come into this storm
too so that a change to rain is expected on Wednesday.
Then quiet again for a day or two, next Thursday and Friday with temperatures near to slightly below normal.
Dec 30, 2008 | 7:50 PM
Category:
Weather
Get ready for another spell of rapid weather changes. This time,
unfortunately, no warm weather is involved. It's all about the wintry cold and
snow.
The storm traveling east along interstate 80 Tuesday night will bring
precipitation to our area by Wednesday morning and it will last into the afternoon.
When this type of storm tracks west to east like this, there is usually a very
sharp gradient to snow amounts. South of the system, not much will fall and it
will probably be a mix of wet snow or rain. Along and to the north of the path,
snowfall rates increase. So with the current track across I-80 in New Jersey to
NYC and right across Long Island, the estimates go like this:
A coating to 2 inches or so along that path. Central and southern New Jersey
may not get much at all. However, northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and
Connecticut will likely get at least 2 and possibly up to 5 inches of snow.
It's possible to see a few places get close to 6 inches up towards the
interstate 84 corridor in the Hudson Valley and CT. Any deviation north or
south of that path will alter the snow bands north or south respectively. And
we just won't know until the low is approaching NJ.
Fortunately, the storm is a quick mover. It will intensify rapidly as it
moves up towards the New England coast. At that point, it will pull down bitter
arctic air on strong and gusty northerly winds. The combination of falling
temperatures and winds gusting to 45 mph will drive the wind chill down into
the single digits. Anyone outdoors during New Years celebrations must bundle up
in layers to prevent the danger of frostbite.
New Year's Day will be sunny but quite cold. Highs only in the upper 20s to
low 30s.
Then the next storm coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest will affect our
region on Friday into Friday night/Saturday morning. There are dozens of
question to be answered about this one. Will it strengthen? Will a secondary
storm form along the coast? If so, will it intensify when it's too far offshore
or close to the coast? And since it is still so far away, the best bet for now
is to simply call for a wintry mix.
By Saturday afternoon, it will begin to clear and we should go into a period
of quieter weather into early next week. Temperatures will be seasonably cold.
Dec 29, 2008 | 7:22 PM
Category:
Weather
The cooling trend is underway and by midweek it will be quite cold
again. Monday was about 20 degrees cooler than Sunday. Tuesday will be
a few degrees lower and by Wednesday into Thursday, it will turn frigid.
Several cold fronts will pass the area over the next few days.
Overnight will be partly cloudy and there could be a flurry or two
north and west of New York City. A mix of sun and clouds will be back
for Tuesday. Tuesday afternoon highs will be just a little above 40 and
the wind will gust up to about 30 mph.
The next cold front will be a little more potent with a small low
pressure attached to it so there is a better chance of snow or rain
showers from Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Most of it will be
gone before evening so travelers should not have to deal with
precipitation. However, roads and walks may be icy from what does occur
earlier in the day because temperatures will be plummeting.
Highs on Wednesday will start out near 40 but then drop thru the
30's into the 20's. At midnight in Times Square, expect the mercury to
be running between 25 and 30 with wind chills in the teens so be sure
to layer up if you're heading out.
The new year begins with sunny but frigid weather and highs just about getting to near freezing.
Then the next weather system is likely to be even more powerful. As
it swings across from the west, a secondary storm will likely form
along the coast. Depending on it's track and how much ocean air it
brings in, our region is likely to be covered by snow, sleet or rain
through the day into the night.
Clearing is expected for the weekend and it will be seasonably cold.
Dec 28, 2008 | 7:33 PM
Category:
Weather
We enjoyed incredible weather Sunday afternoon. No, we didn't have a
great amount of sun but the temperature still reached record highs in
the low to middle 60s. Even across Long Island, where the southwest
wind blew across the chilly ocean, temperatures managed to climb into
the 50s which were records in some places, too. This is the way this
December has gone. -- a few remarkably warm days followed by a roller
coaster down to more wintry conditions.
It will be similar this
week though not quite as dramatic. A cold front passing through Sunday
night, will drop temperatures into the 40s for Monday but that is still
above normal. Plenty of sun is expected for Monday and even Tuesday,
though Tuesday will be a little cooler with highs of 40-45. We close
the year on Wednesday with highs staying close to 40 and the
possibility of a rain or snow shower. New Year's Eve in Times Square is
expected to be dry but getting colder. Midnight temperatures will be
down to 25-30.
The new year starts quite cold with highs barely
getting to freezing then we turn our attention to a storm that could
bring rain, snow or a mix to the tri-state region on Friday. Hopefully,
it will be pulling out in time for some clearing during Saturday and
lasting into Sunday. Next weekend's temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal.
Have a safe, happy and wonderful New Year!
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Dec 27, 2008 | 7:25 PM
Category:
Weather
Warm, moist southerly winds across the cool ocean and the chilly
ground which still has some snow on it in the northwest suburbs, is
producing a very thick fog across the tri-state region. A dense fog
advisory is in effect overnight into Sunday morning. During Sunday, a
cold front will be approaching and turn the wind to a more southwest or
westerly direction. The fog should thin out and allow for some
sunshine. At that point, the mercury will soar through the 50s and into
the 60s, possibly breaking records across the area during Sunday
afternoon. The cold front itself will likely produce a few showers
later in the afternoon into the evening.
Once the front passes,
colder weather will return. It won't be a cold outbreak but daytime
high for Monday and Tuesday will be back into the 40s with fair
weather. 2008 will close on a chilly note with highs closer to 40 but
it is expected to be dry New Years Eve with temperatures in the 30's.
The new year of 2009 will get off to a cold start with highs in the 30s
and increasing clouds. Our next weather maker could bring a round of
rain or snow on Friday into early Saturday.
So once again, a
roller coaster week of temperatures coming up but no weather problems
foreseen for our part of the country as we celebrate the beginning of
the new year.
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Dec 20, 2008 | 7:27 PM
Category:
Weather
Winter weather is hitting the tri-state region once again. The scenario
and results are a little different but the outcome will be similar to
what we went through on Friday.
Temperatures barely rose through
the 20s on Saturday under a gray sky with occasional flurries. The next
storm is approaching from the Midwest. As it gets closer overnight, the
snow will pick up in intensity and immediately accumulate. Now here's
the difference; while the main storm travels up to the west of us, a
secondary storm will form off the Virginia coast. While forming, enough
ocean air should move into the region and change the snow to sleet and
then rain. It will happen first along the New Jersey shore and south
shore and east end of Long Island. Then it will eventually spread
inland toward New York City and beyond. The question is, how much snow
falls before that transition takes place. A heavy burst of snow usually
occurs before the transition as well. So putting that all into
consideration, I think Long Island, New York City, and the Jersey Shore
will get a coating to as much as 2 inches. Farther inland toward I-287,
and from the Merritt Parkway on north, 2-4 inches of snow will
accumulate before any change. Areas closer to I 84 in the Hudson Valley
and Connecticut could see 3-5 inches of snow and sleet and probably
very little change to rain.
The good news is that this storm is
moving fast. By late Sunday, the sky may even begin to brighten and
hopefully roads will begin to dry out for families traveling to
celebrate Hanukkah, before it gets too icy. The combined storms will
pull down another arctic blast that will send the mercury down to
bone-chilling levels along with a biting wind. In fact, it may get so
cold that a wind-chill advisory may be needed, meaning it could feel
like it's below 0 from Sunday night into Monday morning. A little good
news....this looks to be the last of the arctic outbreaks for awhile.
Sunshine
will be back on Monday but I doubt the daytime highs will get out of
the 20s. Fair weather is still likely for Tuesday and the temperature
should moderate back into the 30s.
Yet another storm is likely
in time for Christmas Eve day into Christmas. However, this one
definitely looks like it will take a track up to the Great Lakes. If
that path holds, southwest winds ahead of the system will rapidly bring
temperatures into the 40s and if this pattern holds, it will be a wet
Christmas rather than white. The remainder of the week will also be
quite mild with highs in the 40s.
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Dec 14, 2008 | 6:06 PM
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This past week's weather was wild as expected. Don't let your guard
down. After this quiet weekend, the roller coaster ride will start
again with temperatures up and down and plenty of chances for rain
through the week.
Southerly winds for Sunday and Monday will
send temperatures to well above normal levels again. The mercury will
level off and then actually rise overnight and could be up near 60
degrees again for Monday afternoon. Then a cold front will pass through
by Monday night and the mercury will begin to tumble again. Periods of
rain along and behind the cold front could briefly end as wet snow or
flurries, especially north and west of New York City during Tuesday
morning. The rest of Tuesday will just be mainly cloudy and getting
chillier as temperatures drop through the 40s into the 30s.
Weather
fronts and southern moisture may meet up several more times during the
week. A few periods of rain expected for Wednesday and possibly
Thursday. Temperatures will be a little below normal making for a raw,
cold rain. On Friday however, south or southeasterly winds will
transport warmer and wet weather back up and highs will climb into the
50s but with more showers likely; some may be heavy.
We may get
lucky and get a break to start next weekend. Saturday's high would be
in the seasonal 40s but there is a chance of another storm affecting us
on Sunday. That one could bring rain or mixed precipitation. But always
keep in mind, that is a week away and weather patterns can change quite
a few times. Be sure to watch Fox 5 and log in to this site frequently
for updates on the upcoming changes.
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Dec 7, 2008 | 4:40 PM
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Temperatures will plummet into the Teens and 20's tonight. Combine that
with the wind and wind chill readings will be in the single digits at
times from tonight into Monday morning. You will really need to bundle
up when going back to work and school Monday morning! Exposed skin
could develop frostbite in 30-45 minutes.
Monday itself will be
sunny but I doubt the mercury will be able to get much above freezing.
The wind will gradually diminish though by late day. Less wind but
still very cold for Monday night with lows mostly in the 20's.
Next....a
more important storm will affect our area from late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Believe it or not, even with this arctic air over us now,
the storm will take a track that will bring much milder southerly winds
into our region so that temperatures will begin to rise rapidly during
Tuesday. Any mixed precipitation at the start inlnad, should be brief.
Then windy with occasional rain is likely Tuesday night and Wednesday
but temperatures will climb into the 50's. But that's not all. Another
bitter blast will follow that storm and the lingering rain may change
to snow before ending.
Weather maps are still undecided about
late in the week and next weekend as well. There are some indications
there could be yet another storm with some precipitation.
Plenty of changes this week. Possibly a wild week of weather. Keep track right here at nyweatherauthority.com