Craig_Allen's Blog

Hurricane Gustav is on a direct path for the central Gulf Coast and will strike sometime around midday on Monday. The affects of the storm, such as wind, rain and rising tides will begin as early as Sunday night.

Gustav is a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds and gusts to near 130 mph. He is not as strong as when he hit western sections of Cuba as a Category 5. Going over Cuba, he lost some strength and has not completely regained the form and symmetry he had earlier. The water temperature in the Gulf off Cuba is near 90 which should have resulted in rapid intensification. Now he he is in the central Gulf where the water is in the mid 80s and the upper environment is not as favorable either. So, Gustav may be able to get back to a Category 4 but hopefully not a Category 5 before a U.S. landfall.

>>>GET WEATHER ALERTS ON YOUR PHONE, DESKTOP

The predicted path of the hurricane takes Gustav to the left of New Orleans but this is still a problem for that city. The upper right quadrant of a hurricane is the most intense part and could still severely batter New Orleans, no matter what the category.

These are the main concerns for the Gulf coastal cities... obviously the wind which will result in considerable damage but the storm surge and rainfall are just as threatening. The storm surge is a wall of water from a rising sea, pushed ahead of the eye of the hurricane. It could raise sea level 10-15 feet or more, in the direct path of Gustav. Rainfall will exceed 10 inches in many locations, perhaps as high as 20 or 25 inches. The combination is what worries everyone with regards to New Orleans.

Gustav will rapidly lose wind strength once on land late Monday afternoon but he is expected to slow down and become a huge rainmaker, inundating the south from Mississippi and Louisiana over to Texas.

So while not currently as severe as Katrina, Gustav packs a wallop and could cause tremendous damage.
Get this widget! Visit the Widget Gallery

Beautiful Sunday weather will continue into the Labor Day holiday. High pressure over western New York state will drift east and provide us with a clear sky overnight. Lows will be in the mid and upper 60s around New York City and and cool as 50 in some suburbs. With sunshine on Monday, daytime highs will once again climb into the middle 80s. It looks like a terrific beach day. Water temperatures are still in the 70s with only a few local beaches reporting cooler waters upwelling along the NJ shore.

It's a simple weather pattern that will prevail through the most of the week. It will be getting hotter though as daytime highs will approach 85-90 through Thursday. The first chance of a thunderstorm won't come until Thursday night or Friday.

This same area of high pressure is responsible for keeping Gustav  well to our south and will probably force the storm to meander and linger along the Gulf coast for a few days after landfall. That could inundate that region with more than 10 inches of rain.

You can track the path of Gustav at the NYWeatherAuthority.com.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

The holiday weekend got off to a very wet start in parts of the region with a 1-2 inch dousing from early morning thunderstorms. Some sun returned Saturday afternoon and it was quite muggy until scattered showers developed during the late day and evening.

Behind these showers, some terrific weather is slated for the rest of the holiday weekend and into next week.

Unfortunately, many of us have to go back to work and school while the sun will be shining and temperatures will climb to well above normal, perhaps even reaching 90 in some places during the week. The weather pattern around here is as simple as that for the next several days. No rain in the forecast til Thursday night or Friday at the earliest.

On the other hand, there's considerable worry and concern for the people along the Gulf Coast as major hurricane Gustav tracks beyond the western tip of Cuba, northwest into the Gulf. The 85-90 degree water in the Gulf will likely result int he storm remaining very strong. Landfall is expected sometime Monday night into Tuesday as a category 3 or 4 storm, which could be devastating. Expectations are for Gustav to then slow down and inundate the region with rain. It's a scary situation for those folks and you can track the storm on NYWeatherAuthority.com.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

The weather has been spectacular for the last several days but that is about to come to an end... briefly. A cold front is approaching from the northwest and it will likely bring a few showers and thunderstorms to our tri-state region.

Southwest winds on Sunday have been bringing up the humidity and it will be somewhat muggy overnight. The cold front will being making its way to the coast during Monday. Ahead of it, warm and humid. Along the front, a few showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, it will turn cooler and less humid. It looks like some terrific weather for the middle of the week. Vacationers will have sunshine though temperatures will be a little below normal by day and the nights will be cool.

The good weather will last through Thursday. As we approach the holiday weekend, we may have to deal with whatever moisture is left from long-lived Fay. There is a chance of showers on Friday but we should see the return of fair weather in time for the holiday.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

Finally....a nice weekend. No severe thunderstorms to watch....or run from. The quiet weather will continue Sunday night with lows dropping to around 70 in New York City but comfortably cool upper 50s to middle 60s in the suburbs.

Sunshine for Monday and a southwest wind will boost daytime highs well into the 80s. It could even touch 90 in a few inland locations. I have to mention the chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two late in the day on Monday or Monday evening from a weak weather system. It shouldn't be a problem but we know how things have been around here lately so I want to play it safe and keep you covered.

There is a better chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday. It will be very warm again with highs of 85-90 and more humid. A cold front will slowly push through by late day or evening and that's when we'll have the best chance of storms.

After that, Wednesday and Thursday look great. Temperatures on Wednesday may be a bit below normal, just approaching 80. It will warm up on Thursday back to near 85.

Friday would be a decent day as well but we have to wait and see what track the remnants of Fay will take after potentially making landfall along the Florida west coast or panhandle region. That will happen on Tuesday. The remnant rainfall could reach this far north late Friday or Saturday

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

Sunday started with sunshine but the clouds gathered and the showers developed. It started as severe weather down in southern New Jersey and the Philadelphia area but by the time it made it up here it was less intense. That's not to say we won't have our share on nasty weather. The storm associated with this system is hanging around western New York and will loop down to the mid Atlantic coast, then back up again to off New England. This is something you're more likely to find in the winter months. But here it is, still August so severe weather can be the result. It will take until Monday evening for all of this to move away. Temperatures will run below normal because of this.

Tuesday will be brighter and warmer with only a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Highs will climb to 80-85. Even Wednesday is looking pretty good with temperatures again up at 80-85.

Toward the end of the week, we may start dealing with a similar weather pattern. Right now, there's a small chance of showers getting in late Thursday but most showers and thunderstorms should hold off  until mid or late Friday.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

A beautiful summer Sunday ended with a some clouds and widely scattered showers but they will be over and done Sunday night. Under a clear sky, temperatures will drop to the comfortable 60s and even a few upper 50s in the normally cooler inland suburbs.

Monday will be similar with bright sunshine for several hours. Then some clouds may show up late in the day but before that, it will warm up into the mid and upper 80's.  Lows Monday night will be in the 60s to around 70. Now, some weather maps are still indicating a chance of a thunderstorm Monday night, against other factors but keep in mind that it is a possibility.

Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with highs near 90 and increasing humidity. But the heat won't last long. A shower or thunderstorm is possible by late Tuesday but another round of thundery weather seems likely for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

That will be followed by lower temperatures the second part of the week under intervals of clouds and sun, a passing shower or two and with highs of 80-85.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

The area was hit with some intense weather again Saturday afternoon and evening but that will all be moving offshore. Better weather is likely for your Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. It'll be warm but not too humid. Highs will reach the middle 80s.Now, we can't completely rule out a shower in one or two spots late in the day. Lows Sunday night will drop back to near 70 in New York City and comfortable 60s in the suburbs.

Monday will also be a pretty decent summer day with highs climbing well into the 80s, even close to 90. During late Monday and Monday evening, another cold front will approach from New England and could trigger a thunderstorm or two in the area. That will retreat on Tuesday and the daytime high will reach near 90 with a partly sunny sky.

Yet another cold front, this one approaching from the northwest will likely bring thunderstorms with it on Wednesday. It will be a muggy day with highs in the 80s. Then better weather is likely to return on Thursday.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

"WILD,"  "WICKED" and  "UNREAL"  were just some of the terms tossed around to describe Sunday's thunderstorms. Fortunately, the cold front producing the intense storms is pushing them offshore and the weather is improving from west to east. Only a handful of thunderstorms may still dot the area overnight.

Monday will be a better day. Very warm, moderately humid and yes, there may be a thunderstorm in spots but not an outbreak like we suffered through Sunday. The high will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows near 70 in New York City but cooler in the suburbs.

Tuesday and most of Wednesday will be quiet as well although very, very warm.  Look for highs between 85-90. A thunderstorm is back in the forecast for late Wednesday.

The latter part of the week will be warm and humid with more clouds and the threat of thunderstorms for Thursday and Friday. Hard to tell if they will be as numerous and severe but it will be something to watch for. Highs will run in the middle 80s.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

Terrific weather to start the weekend but we won't be able to keep it through the Sunday. Sunday will be quite warm and humid but with a cold front approaching, the threat for thunderstorms will be on the rise. Highs will climb well into the 80s but it won't be as sunny and the best chance for thunderstorms will be during the mid to late afternoon, into the night. As is typical in a situation like this, some thunderstorms will be capable of producing flooding downpours, gusty winds, hail and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

The cold front should pass offshore on Monday but the atmosphere won't completely calm down so there is a chance of a thunderstorm or two popping up on Monday as well. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s though it may not be quite as humid.

Tuesday will likely be the hottest day of the week. A mainly sunny sky will get the mercury up to near 90. The mid and latter part of the week will bring the humidity back along with more clouds and an increasing chance of thunderstorms again, especially from late Wednesday into Thursday.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

And the heat continues. Another day of 90-plus temperatures. It was even more humid today so it became more oppressive. No major change expected in the overall pattern for the first part of the week though there will be some subtle changes that may help a bit.

Sunday night will be very uncomfortable...no lower than 75-80 for urban areas and 70-75 in the suburbs. A thunderstorm is possible but mainly north and west of New York City. There is a better chance of thunderstorms as we progress into the work week. A stationary front back over western New York and the Great Lakes should begin to edge toward us over the next few days. Each day that it gets closer, the better the chance of thunderstorms. However, it may take until Thursday for the front to completely pass our region. Talk about creeping along!

There's another reason the front will have trouble pushing along -- Tropical Storm Cristobal. He will taking a track off the Carolina coast out to sea. He should remain far enough offshore so we don't get direct affects but rough surf is likely at our area beaches. Looking at this from the other side, the slow moving front will actually help keep Cristobal offshore....sort of like a power play between the two.

It should be mentioned that we really need some rain but we don't necessarily want it from a tropical storm!

Finally, by late week, all of these systems should be well away from our area. Temperatures and humidity should get back to somewhat more comfortable levels.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

Another day with more clouds than sun, high humidity but not too many showers...yet. There is still a good chance of a shower or thunderstorm Sunday night with lows just around 70.

The stationary weather front that has been hanging around will weaken and the Bermuda High will take over our weather for the next several days. A little more sunshine is expected for Monday, which will send the temperature into the mid 80s, possibly even near 90 in some interior hot spots. A thunderstorm or two will pop up in spots. Tuesday and Wednesday will be even hotter. Highs will be near or even over 90 with high humidity and the typical scattering of thunderstorms.

A cold front will approach Wednesday evening. It will have its own thunderstorms -- and hopefully it will keep on moving past us on Thursday. So while a leftover shower can't be ruled out on Thursday, the overall trend will be toward lower humidity and lower temperatures for a couple of days, late in the week.

As for Tropical Storm Bertha she was 1,055 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday. Bertha was moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...a general west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. It is much too early to determine whether Bertha will eventually affect any land areas. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast and Bertha could become a hurricane during the next day or two.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

We're in a very tropical weather pattern across our tri-state  region. Southerly winds are keeping it humid. A weak but nearly stationary front along the coast is keeping clouds around and it's also acting as a path for showers and thunderstorms which can affect parts of the region at any given time.

Not much change in the overall forecast for Sunday. The day will be very similar to Saturday in that there will be breaks of sun but a shower or thunderstorm is likely for some areas. It will be in the muggy low 80s.

A few subtle changes may take place over the course of the work week but once again, the tropical theme will prevail. I'm expecting a little more sun as we go through the week which will make it hotter. The humidity will remain high so it looks like an uncomfortable few days as temperatures climb to near 90. Once again, thunderstorms will pop up, especially during late day and evening hours. They are likely to be more "miss" than "hit" but always be aware of the possibility. Just think, this is what they go through in the southern states, such as Florida, almost every day of the summer!

There is a tropical storm way out in the Atlantic named Bertha. As of this writing, she was located near latitude 16.7 N  and 39.3 W or about 1015 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands or about 1570 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Bertha is moving west at  21 MPH. On this track, Bertha will remain over the tropical Atlantic waters for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph. Gradual strengthening is forecast.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

As advertised, another tropical-like changeable weather day. One hour you're taking in the warmth of the sun, then suddenly you hear the distant thunder. The sky grows dark, the thunder booms and the rain comes down in torrents....only to be followed by sunshine and the steamy feel of summer.  These bouts of thunderstorms may go on through a good portion of the night as a cold front approaches. Some of the storms have the potential to produce damaging winds and hail but the main threat will be flooding downpours and frequent dangerous lightning.

Monday may not be as wild and changeable but we can't rule out a few more thunderstorms anytime from afternoon into the evening. It also will not be as humid or as warm with highs mainly 80-85.

The threat of a thunderstorm is still in the forecast for Tuesday but right now it looks like any that develop would be few and far between.  Highs on Tuesday will be near 80.  Wednesday is shaping up to be dry but it will start getting warmer again with highs in the middle 80s.

Humidity will begin to increase on Thursday and so will the chance of a thunderstorm....again. For Friday the 4th, it looks like a typical summery day from this early view. Some sun, warm and humid but Mother Nature may provide some fireworks of her own before the day is through.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast

Hot and humid weather during Saturday led to a few strong thunderstorms but it should be quiet for several hours into the overnight. On the other hand, bands of showers and thunderstorms will be approaching from the west and one or two can't be ruled out late at night or early Sunday. Sunday afternoon will be very warm and steamy with the threat for showers and thunderstorms, increasing through the day. A cold front pushing into this very humid air will trigger the storms and it's possible that a few will become strong. Some storms will contain torrential rain, frequent cloud to ground lightning and damaging winds. We will be keeping an eye on Fox5 SkyGuardian.

While the front will try to push off shore by Monday, we still won't get a clean break from the unsettled summertime weather. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will run between 80 and 85 degrees. The humidity will not be as oppressive but the risk of a shower or thunderstorm will remain in the forecast for both days.

Finally, Wednesday and Thursday should be rain free. Temperatures will be climbing into the 80s and the humidity will make a comeback by the end of the week. In fact, on Friday the 4th, we may have to deal with a few thunderstorms again.

New York Weather Cameras

New York Storm Warning Tracker

New York Weather Forecasts

New York Radar

5-Day New York
Weather Forecast