melissa_magee's Blog

What a fine finish to the work week! As we head into the weekend, the mild trend will only continue thanks to a dominating ridge of high pressure. Friday night will be calm, cool and comfortable with the overnight low in Midtown falling to 56 degrees, while temperatures in the suburbs could be near the lower 40s.

The start of the weekend will be filled with sunshine. High pressure will move out of the Ohio Valley and move to the north of the tri-state. As the area of high pressure migrates to the north, the wind flow will turn out of the north, northeast. The northerly wind will bring down slightly cooler air Saturday. The daytime high Saturday will be around 70 degrees. Now, while it may feel a touch cooler, keep in mind... the average for the city is 66 degrees. So, temperatures will stay remain above average. The overnight lows across the region. will range from 45-58 degrees. Expect the mild days and cool nights to continue Sunday, as you can liken the temperatures to something you would feel more like spring or late summer. Sunday, will be another picture perfect day to spend outdoors, with highs in the middle to lower 70s.

It's a great weekend to take advantage of the leaf-peeping season. Across the northeast, colors are either peaking or near peak to the north of the tri-state. You will find "patchy" color across our area. Wherever you go, you've got great traveling conditions to explore the fall foliage.

The quiet weather pattern will continue Columbus Day, although there could be a few more high clouds in the sky. Tuesday, a cold front is expected to approach from the area...and this will bring in a few more clouds as the day progress. Right now, I'm not calling for any precip. Wednesday will be a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s.

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The temperature is dropping, the days are getting shorter and the leaves are changing! If you are looking for a colorful display from mother nature, now is the time to check out the fall foliage during the leaf peeping season. The fall season can be such a beautiful time of year, with vibrant hues of yellow and orange, and deep shades of red and purple that paint tree tops across the Northeast. I love it when the leaves start to change color. I know this happens every year, but every year...I'm always surprised. You can liken the feeling to opening a gift on your birthday. You just never know what you are going to get! Or in this case, you never know what colors you are going to see.

So, what's the secret behind this annual wonder? Here's how it works: Due to the change in temperature during the fall season, chlorophyll responsible for producing the green pigment in the leaves starts to break down. As the chlorophyll breaks down, other colors that already exist in the leaves (orange, yellow, etc.) become unmasked. One ingredient that helps unlock the natural color in the leaves is a smaller dose of sunlight (i.e. shorter days).

If you are looking for some prime time leaf peeping, you will need cool, dry nights...but NO frost. An early frost can cause an early leaf fall and change the intensity of the color you see in the leaves. Now, while there have been frost advisories and freeze warning for the northern and western suburbs, the frost season hasn't been too early. Normal time for frost to develop for the northern tier of the Tri-State is around October 10th.

Even though we can look at the changing leaves as a fall phenomenon, the weather during the spring and summer months also plays a role. A late spring can delay the change of the colors and a dry summer could reduce the intensity of the colors you see in the fall. The fall foliage season usually gets started in September and lasts through early November. So, now is the time to see the spectacular fall colors because before you know it...winter will come knocking on your door!

There are plenty of places to view the fall colors and I'd like to hear from you. Let me know where you enjoy seeing the leaves change this time of year. Feel free to share some leaf-peeping photos, too!

chat soon,

Melissa

Hey Everyone!

I don't know about you, but I can't believe we are already in the month of October. It seems like just yesterday I was at the beach soaking in the summer rays and today, I have on a coat in order to warm up from a gusty wind. The cold front has moved through the area and we have some cooler temperatures to prove it. And it's just the beginning. Right now or at least for the rest of the week, it looks like temperatures will stay below average.

I get it! I've been living on the east coast for nearly three years, but NOW I FINALLY GET IT! I was talking to someone from the east coast about this just the other day...I understand why the summer season is taken so seriously. I can see how every beautiful summer afternoon is spent outside...and thousands flock to the coast. Let's face it, it's only a matter of time before we are all wearing scarves and donning an extra layer of clothing...and it's not to look cute!

I grew up in Los Angeles, California and I've never really experienced a true change in seasons. Of course, there are places in California where you'll get a taste of the 4 seasons, but Los Angeles is a little different. Sure, there are "cold snaps," stormy weather patterns and strong Santa Ana winds from time to time, but never a bone chilling cold. To me, it was "chilly" if the temperature went from 75 to 70 degrees, as my favorite meteorologist on TV was talking about a "cool" down. In L.A., I was always near a beach and would venture out for a little surf and sand whenever it was sunny and warm, which was more often than not. So, when I moved to the east coast, I didn't understand the URGENCY to run to the beach or revel in the warmth. Today, however, it just hit me: fall is here and the nights are getting longer. The days when we have a long stretch of summerlike temperatures could be far and away.

Even though I grew up in Los Angeles, I've had the opportunity to work in different TV Markets...so, beleive me I've been through some frigid nights and snow storms. But it's different when you grow up with the cold. So, now I get it! As a weather geek, I love it when there's a bit of a chill in the air and I'm ready for the changing season!

The weather pattern is changing. An upper level low continues to move over the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The low is basically a cool pocket of air in the upper levels of the atmosphere. As the air at the surface clashes with the cool pocket of air, it will spark a few instability showers. While a few spotty showers could move into the Tri-State from time to time, most of the activity will stay to the north of the area. One of the reasons why the upper level low is creating showers in our area is due to a dip in the jetstream. As the jetstream dips to the south, it will also allow cooler air from Canada to filter into the Tri-State. Temperatures will remain in the 60s the rest of the week. Sounds like great weather for some apple-picking! 

Stay warm and talk to you nex time,

Melissa

What a damp and gloomy day! Most of the region saw a persistent light rain and drizzle, while the drenching rain traveled up into New England. Showers will continue to linger through Saturday night, but temperatures will stay rather mild. The tri-state is wedged between to systems - - an area of low pressure and Hurricane Kyle. As a result of a persistent onshore flow and tropical moisture streaming northward, overnight lows will be 5-10 degrees above normal. The low in Midtown will fall down to 65 degrees and the suburbs will be in the middle and lower 60s.

The Flood Watch for the tri-state has been canceled as most of the heavy rain stayed to our east. The High Surf Advisory, however, remains in effect until 6 p.m. Sunday. The persistent easterly wind this weekend will cause minor to moderate beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.

The area of low pressure responsible for the wet weather will continue to weaken and lift to the northeast, bringing the threat of a few showers on Sunday.  Daytime Highs Sunday will range from the lower to upper 70s. There should be some gradual improvement across the area late Sunday night as the low pulls away and the winds become more northwesterly. While one system starts to exit the area, the focus now shifts to the tropics. Kyle is now a minimal category one hurricane and is racing to the north at 23 miles per hour. Kyle is expected to stay well to the east of the tri-state, but indirectly impact the area with rough surf. Hurricane Kyle is expected to be near coastal New England or the Canadian Maritimes late Sunday or early Monday.

Monday, the sunshine will finally return to the region and temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. There are changes early next week. A cold front is expected to move through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday with the threat of showers. Behind the cold front, expect a cooler air mass. Wednesday through the latter half of the week, temperatures will be in the 60s.

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The weather has been beautiful across the Tri-State this Labor Day with daytime highs in the 80s. Monday night, conditions will remain clear and calm across the region. The overnight low will be in the upper 60s in Midtown, while the suburbs will range from the lower 50s to the middle 60s. Tuesday, expect more dry conditions and lots of sunshine, as high pressure will remain in control.

Keep in mind, as the students head back to school Tuesday, temperatures will be above normal. So, make sure the kids are dressed appropriately and they drink plenty of fluids. Daytime highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s, while inland locations could be near 90 tomorrow afternoon. While it will be very warm, the good news is the humidity should remain low.

High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the early half of the week. But a tropical system could indirectly impact the Tri-State by the time we close out the work week and head into the weekend. Right now, Hanna is a hurricane and it's moving to the south, south west at 5 miles per hour. Later this week, the storm could make a turn to the north and impact the east coast of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. It is very possible that the moisture or the remnants of Hanna could move into our area Friday through Sunday and end our long stretch of dry, sunny weather. We are going to monitor Hanna very closely.

Gustav made landfall as a category two storm with winds at 110 miles per hour. As Gustav moves inland, it will continue to batter the central Gulf Coast with torrential downpours, strong winds and isolated tornadoes. Over time, Gustav is expected to weaken as it moves over land, but it's also expected to slow down...which means a prolonged period of rain for Louisiana, Mississippi, Northeast Texas and the Central Plains. Six to 12 inches of rain is possible, with some isolated spots finding as much as 20 inches of rainfall.

The tropics are heating up! We have Gustav and Hanna and now there is Tropical Storm Ike. Ike's sustained winds are at 50 miles per hour and it's generally moving to the west and is forecast to move to the west-northwest later this week. Ike could become a hurricane in the next 36 hours.

You can track the path of Gustav at the NYWeatherAuthority.com.

High pressure is slowly losing its grip on the tristate and that's going to lead to a few changes this holiday weekend. There will be a few more clouds around Friday night as we are still battling moisture left over from Tropical Storm Fay There could be a few spotty showers thanks to Fay's moisture, but for the most part, the region will have to deal with an increase in cloud cover and an increase in humidity as the winds turn to the south. The overnight low will fall  to 65, while the suburbs will range from 60-65 degrees. 

The holiday weekend will be off to a damp start, as a cold front coming out of the eastern Great Lakes approaches the region. The good news with the front is that Fay's moisture will finally start to exit the tristate. The bad news is you'll have to dodge on and off showers throughout Saturday. Saturday will start out mostly cloudy, then the showers will arrive across the northern and western zones and continue to move to the east as the day continues. There could also be a few afternoon thunderstorms, mainly to the north of the city. The cold front will exit the tristate by Saturday evening and the rest of the Labor Day weekend looks great.

Sunday, high pressure will drop down from Canada, bring a dry and refreshing air mass into the area. In fact, in the wake of the cold front, temperatures should rebound nicely. Expect a full day of sunshine with temperatures in the middle 80s. Labor Day looks even better with daytime highs in the upper 80s. High pressure will keep conditions dry into early next week.

The tropics are heating up. Gustav has been upgraded to a hurricane. Over the weekend, Gustav will travel over or near The Cayman Islands, then it's expected to cross the western portion of Cuba. And from there, the storm is expected to intensify. As Gustav re-emerges in the Gulf of Mexico, the warm waters will help to fuel the storm. Early next week, Gustav could become a major hurricane as it takes aim toward the Northern Gulf Coast.
 
Tropical Storm Hanna is moving toward the WNW at 11 miles per hour and the storm is expected to strengthen within the next 24-48 hours. Right now, the National Hurricane Center has Hanna moving to the WNW, then curving toward the Southwest for the Caribbean early next week. Nonetheless, the storm needs to be monitored closely, as the projected path could change at anytime.

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You can thank a dominating high pressure ridge for the dry conditions across the Tristate Thursday night. There will be a few more clouds this evening, but they will primarily be to the west of the city. The overnight low in Midtown will fall down to a cool and comfortable 64 degrees, while some spots in the suburbs will be in the lower 50s.

The moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay is having a tough time advancing to the north and east. While there have been some showers over western New York State and northeastern Pennsylvania, the showers are not moving into our region. There might be a few more clouds across the western zones tonight, but high pressure should keep the area rain-free.

Friday, there will be a few more clouds in the sky, especially as the afternoon and evening progresses. If there is any moisture left from the remnants of Fay, the moisture will be confined to western zones of the Tristate. And those showers will mainly arrive after midnight. So, you should be in good shape if you're traveling Friday, for the Labor Day Weekend. The Daytime highs will range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

As we start the holiday weekend, a cold front will approach the area from the Great Lakes. The cold front will help to push the moisture from Fay into the viewing area. Saturday will start out mainly cloudy with showers starting around noon and thunderstorms later in the day. The showers will be on and off throughout the day until the front clears the Tristate Saturday night. Daytime highs will range from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.

The good news is the rest of the Holiday weekend looks great. High pressure will build in by Sunday, bringing dry conditions and fair weather. In fact, Sunday through early next week, high pressure will keep the rain away and provide ample sunshine. The highs will be in the mid to lower 80s.

The tropics are heating up. Tropical Storm Gustav has moved over the eastern tip of Jamaica. In the short term, the storm is expected to weaken as it interacts with the land there. But as Gustav emerges back into the warm Northwestern Caribbean waters, expect the storm to strengthen. The National Hurricane Center has the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico, as potentially a category two or three storm. If you live as far east as the panhandle of Florida or as far west as the upper Texas coast, you should monitor the storm closely.

Tropical Storm Hanna is about 260 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and is moving toward the west at 12 miles per hour. The forecast path has Hanna moving toward the west and strengthening to the north and west later in the weekend. While the storm is far away from the U.S. coastline, the path of the storm could change at any time. The New York Weather Authority team will continue to monitor the tropics and bring you the latest information.

If you're tired of the summertime temperatures, a preview of autumn is on the way Tuesday night. A cold front moved through the Tri-State earlier Tuesday and it only sparked a few showers and storms that were mainly to the north and east of the city. The front quickly moved in and out of the area, and a nice change is on the way.

A dry Canadian air mass is moving in overnight. A northerly wind will develop, and that will bring in a cooler air. The overnight low in Midtown will be in the lower 60s and the suburbs will range between 50-60 degrees. There could be a few spots in the valleys to the north and west with lows in the 40s.

Wednesday will start out with plenty of sunshine, thanks to high pressure. With the Canadian high overhead, the temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees below normal across the area. The daytime high may not get out of the upper 70s, with cooler temperatures in the suburbs. Wednesday through Saturday, it's all about the temperatures, as the weather pattern will not change much. The good news about high pressure moving into the area is Tropical Storm Fay will stay suppressed to the south and west of the Tri-State. Thursday temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures Friday through the weekend will range between 80-85 degrees.

Much of the weekend looks dry, as well. The next shot of finding any wet weather comes late Sunday into Monday with a cold front coming out of the Great Lakes. The bulk of the showers and thunderstorms should come in Monday, so if you have any evening plans Sunday night, you should be in good shape.

Tropical Storm Fay made landfall this morning just south of Naples, FL, which is right along the southwestern coast of the region. The tropical system has not weakened very much. In fact, Fay is stronger now that it was when it made landfall. The concern is that Fay is moving toward the Northeast and could intensify off the east coast of Florida. Right now, the National Hurricane Center has this becoming a category 1 hurricane before it makes another landfall somewhere along the Florida or Georgia Coast later in the week. The NY Weather Authority Team will continue to keep you up to date on Tropical Storm Fay's erratic path. 

The Tri-State enjoyed a typical summer day, with plenty of sunshine and warmth to enjoy. There are, however, a few changes on the way Monday night and Tuesday. Monday night skies will be partly cloudy. The overnight low in the Midtown will fall down to 70, while temperatures in the suburbs will range between 60-70 degrees.

A cold front is triggering some showers and thunderstorms across upstate New York. This front is expected to slide out of Canada and push toward the southeast later Monday night and into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for the Tri-State Tuesday. A few thunderstorms could be strong, especially to the north of the city. As the front passes through the region Tuesday night, a nice pattern change is briefly on the way. In the wake of the showers and storms, high pressure will settled into the Tri-State, with a dry and cool Canadian air mass by Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s and low 80s with lower humidity.

High pressure will remain in control Wednesday through the first half of the Weekend. Temperatures Thursday and Saturday will rebound into the middle and upper 80s. As long as High pressure remains overhead for the latter half of the week, it looks like the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay will stay to the south and west of the Tri-State. Of course, as the week progress we will continue to monitor this situation.

Saturday looks like the better half of the weekend, as another cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms by Sunday.

Tracking Fay: Earlier today, the center of Fay was over Key West, Florida. Right now, Tropical Storm Fay is moving toward the north-northwest, with a general track toward the north later tonight and Tuesday. There is still the potential for Fay to strengthen tonight and Tuesday and be at or near hurricane strength before it approaches the southwestern coast of Florida. As the storm continues to move closer, Floridians need to be ready. Four to eight inches of rainfall is expected, with locally higher amounts. Strong winds and a storm surge three to five feet above normal will also impact portions of Florida. And anytime, there is a tropical system, severe weather cannot be ruled out. A few isolated tornadoes are possible with Tropical Storm Fay.

We will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Fay and keep you informed with the latest information.

High pressure is expected to build into the region from the south Sunday, pumping in more sunshine with just a few clouds. With winds forecast out of the west, the air will downslope, dry out and warm up. So get ready for a dry, but warmer day with temperatures a few degrees above average. The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday. A cold front will get closer to the tristate late Monday and as a result, the clouds will start to increase late in the day, but the rain should hold off until Tuesday.

Right now, it looks like the front will actually cross the region on Tuesday with a threat of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and dry weather is once again expected to move into the region Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures for the latter half of the work week will be near or a few degrees above normal

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Skies will become mostly cloudy tonight, in advance of our incoming storm system. For the majority of the day, the weather has been calm, with an afternoon full of sunshine. As we head into tonight, changes are on the way. A cold front sweeping through the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley will continue to march into our region. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to break out from a west to east fashion.

The western suburbs could find a few showers this evening, however, the showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. The overnight low in Midtown will fall near 70 degrees, while the suburbs will range from 65-70.

Wednesday morning's commute could be a little tough, as the area of low pressure continues to swing through the area. As the cold front connects with an unstable air mass, you could find locally heavy rainfall. The front should start to make eastward progress by the afternoon, taking the wet weather out into the Atlantic. Gradual clearing will take place behind the front by the afternoon. The showers should start to taper off late in the day and into the night, as high pressure settles in. The Highs Wednesday will be in lower 80s for Midtown, while the suburbs will find temperatures between 78-84 degrees.

Thursday should be mainly dry across the region. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and slightly cooler along the coast. There is a slight chance of finding a thunderstorm Thursday afternoon, but I think most areas will stay rain free. The pattern becomes a bit more unsettled toward the latter half of the week and into the weekend. A trough of low pressure will continue to bring down weak disturbances from Canada that will pivot through the region. This will create the set up for widely scattered showers Friday through the weekend. Daytime Highs will also fall near or below normal.

A nice finish to Friday, but the start of the weekend doesn't look so great. Friday night, temperatures across the region should remain warm. The overnight low in Midtown should fall close to 73 degrees, while the suburbs will range from 62-72 under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

The core of the heat has been to the south and west of the Northeast. Temperatures across the Plains and the Southeast have been well above average. A trough remains over the Northeast and that will allow for an unsettled first half of the weekend. The humidity will return to the area Saturday morning, in advance of a cold front that will sweep through the region. The showers will arrive to the north and west, then continue to move eastward across the viewing area. If you have outdoor plans Saturday, the earlier the better, as some of the showers and storms are capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. It doesn't look like a washout, but the showers and thunderstorms will be around during the afternoon and evening. By late Saturday night, the rain should start to taper off.

There could be a few quick instability showers on Sunday. But if you had to pick a day, Sunday looks to be the better of the two weekend days. Clouds should break for more sunshine by Sunday afternoon, with temperatures in the middle 80s. High pressure will start to move out of the Ohio Valley and slide to the east for the beginning of next week.

Monday, temperatures will be in the upper 80s, with abundant sunshine. Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer. Right now, the pattern takes a turn late Wednesday through Friday with more showers and thunderstorms possible.

After daytime highs managed to climb up to the mid and upper 80s, it will remain warm and humid Thursday night. The overnight low in Midtown will fall down to near 70, while the suburbs will range between 65-70. As brief change is coming as we close out the work week, Friday. While it will remain warm, the humidity levels will start to drop thanks to a northwest wind flow. Friday is all about an air mass change. It's still going to remain warm with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, but the air will be drier.

The air mass change is only temporary, because as early as Friday night the winds will once again come out of the southwest. It's all due to an approaching cold front that will be moving through the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. This cold front is expected to cross the tristate bringing the threat of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. The showers should start to taper off by late Saturday night.

While there could be a few early clouds and a morning shower, Sunday looks to be the better of the two days over the weekend. Sunday afternoon, a down sloping northwest wind flow will dry out the atmosphere and provide a blend of sun and clouds to the region. The daytime highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the middle 80s.

A warm up is on the way for the beginning of next week. High pressure will start to build in from the west Monday and sit directly on top of the region Tuesday. Sunshine, fair weather and highs in the upper 80s are expected for Monday and Tuesday. 

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A fair amount of cloud cover will blanket the area in advance of a cold front that's expected to move through during the overnight hours and into Thursday. A southwesterly wind flow will keep the warm and humid conditions overhead, as the low in Midtown will fall down to 72 degrees, while the suburbs will range from 65-70 degrees. As the cold front approaches, the showers should stay to the west of the city and slowly filter into the tristate after Midnight.

Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are more likely during the day Thursday. Skies will start out cloudy, as the moisture starts to move into the area. The showers will arrive for the first half of the day, then gradual clearing is expected during the afternoon hours. The cold front will finally start to move to the south and east of the region Thursday evening. As that happens, the winds will start to shift from the southwest to the west bringing drier air Thursday night into Friday.

Lower humidity is on the way, as we close out our work week. With the passage of the cold front, Friday's air mass should be nice and comfortable. Lower humidity and plenty of sunshine is expected across the area, as high pressure briefly settles into the area. Temperatures on Friday should be in the mid to upper 80s.

Get ready for a warm up as we head into the weekend. There is widespread heat building across the Four Corners and the Plains States and that heat is head our way. Saturday should be dry, but it will be hot, with temperatures flirting with 90 degrees. Sunday will be hot and humid with temperatures in the lower 90s. In fact, Sunday could mark the beginning of a possible heat wave into early next week.

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While the weekend started out with sunshine, it may not end up that way. A cold front is moving into the Northeast, bringing showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of the showers will hold off until later Sunday night. There could be a few showers that pop up across the lower Hudson Valley and northeast New Jersey late Sunday, but the bulk of the rain will arrive after midnight. Expect mostly cloudy conditions and patchy fog Sunday night in advance of the incoming storm system. The low in Midtown will fall down to 69 degrees, while temperatures will be slightly cooler in the suburbs.

On and off showers are expected as you start the work week on Monday. With the clouds and moisture overhead, temperatures will be slightly cooler. As a result, there is just a slight chance of a few isolated thunderstorms. The showers will gradually taper off, as it moves to the east of the region. As the front exits, the winds will start to shift out of the north and northwest. That will bring in drier air and low humidity Monday night.

And you can play ball on Tuesday. The weather shouldn't put a damper on the All Star Game. The high on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 80s with lower humidity, as high pressure settles into the area. Fair weather is expected from Tuesday through the end of the week. Wednesday night through Friday the humidity is expected to return, along with warmer temperatures. In fact, by the time we close out our week, we could be flirting with 90 degree temperatures.

Update on the tropics: Bertha has been downgraded to a tropical storm and is nearly stationary in the Atlantic waters. A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for Bermuda as Bertha is expected to pass to the south and southeast of the area. The good news is Bertha will make forward progress, as the cold front moving through the Northeast will help to push Bertha to the north and east.

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